David @ Tokyo

Took some time to get to this, but here's your February whale meat inventory update, based on the recent February release of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries' "Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products".

February 2009 outgoing stock: 249 tons

Another measly month on the outgoing stock front, just 249 tons leaving storage. We have to go back to 2004 or thereabouts to find such a weak figure. The figure here is just 50% of the volume for the prior year month.

That said, large fluctuations versus the prior year month are common occurrences for whale, and indeed we may see a relatively large outgoing stock figure for March when those figures are announced.

The weak outgoing figures (and see total inventory below as well) have seen the whale inventory ratio index increase in the past couple of months.


Will February be just another spike, or is there a short term weakness in demand for relatively expensive whale products due to these times of economic turmoil?

February 2009 incoming stock: 101 tons

This figure is fairly typical for a February, although slightly lower (81%) than for the prior year period.

The JARPA II fleet returned to port in Shimonoseki some days ago; the stock offloaded there will not appear in the statistics until the April figures are released around June 10.

February 2009 end-of-month inventories: 2,819 tons

Below 3,000 tons again for February (and subsequent March figures should mark the low point for inventory in 2009), but a slight increase versus the same period in the prior year.

Inventories were 2% higher than at the end of February 2008, but relatively speaking are at quite low levels.

February 2009 top inventory regions

The table below shows whale inventory movements in the leading inventory regions.

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	1,267	1,323	-56
Ishinomaki	590	657	-67
Funabashi	318	320	-2
Nagasaki	152	162	-10
Shimonoseki	121	122	-1
Sasebo	57	?	n/a
Kushiro	53	58	-5
Hakodate	?	53	n/a

No remarkable changes but we see that Sasebo (in the Kyushu region, where whale is said to be most popular in Japan) pops into the list this month, while Hakodate drops out of the top 7.

Graph: Annual volumes

Two months gone, but it looks like a slow start to 2009.

Graph: Monthly volumes

But then there is a relatively low level of inventory at the present time.

Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)

Rejigged this graph from 2008 a little, and might change the colours for the 2009 line as time goes by. In any case the slow start to 2009 is clear from this picture.

Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)

Just a typical start to 2009 from the incoming stock perspective however.

Graph: Regional whale meat inventories

The top blue line is the overall inventory level, and the lines below that are the inventories per region. Tokyo and Ishinomaki are the top two, while Funabashi maintains it's mysterious stock of static whale again this month.


March figures are set to be released on the 8th of May, and I'll have another update for you then.

Labels: stockpile figures, whale meat inventory statistics

Here's your update on whale meat inventories with the latest figures from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for January 2009.

Just the basics for starters, and I'll try to catch up with graphs later when time presents itself, but there isn't much to illustrate with only figures for the first month of the year anyway.

January 2009 outgoing stock: 391 tons

Another slow month in the shipments figure, 391 tons recorded as leaving storage. 391 tons is 73% of the volume recorded for the same month in 2008.

A couple of possible factors influencing the low shipment volume spring to mind:

1) The effect of the economic slump that's going on, of course globally but particularly Japan being an export-dependent nation has been hit hard, as it's Yen currency has appreciated substantially over the past several months and demand from abroad has dropped due to problems overseas. With whale being a rare and rather expensive option for consumers, the tough economic times may be seeing whale consumers opt for cheaper options.

2) Overall inventory for whale is (as of January) at relatively low levels compared with recent years, and substantial additional product is not likely to be available until the JARPA II by-product goes on sale in summer. Dealers may be pacing their sales so as to ensure supply is available until that time. Additionally in January, uncertainty remains about the level of additional product to become available as a result of the JARPA II programme, due to further (not to mention exceedingly dangerous) harassment from the sheep of Paul Watson's anti-whaling personality cult group, "Sea Shepherd".

January 2009 incoming stock: 262 tons

A relatively large month for incoming stock however, 262 tons being 218% of the corresponding January 2008 figure.

January 2009 end-of-month inventories: 2,967 tons

Overall, inventories fell below 3,000 tons as of the end of January, a 4% decrease on the end of the previous month, and 5% lower than at the same time a year earlier.

Whale is in relatively short supply.

January 2009 top inventory regions

The table below shows the movements in whale inventory in the leading inventory regions.

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	1,323	1,451	-128
Ishinomaki	657	643	+14
Funabashi	320	320	0
Nagasaki	162	114	+48
Shimonoseki	122	125	-3
Kushiro	58	61	-3
Hakodate	53	?	n/a
Kawasaki	?	64	n/a

Tokyo remains firmly in the number 1 spot, showing the largest decrease, whereas 2nd place Ishinomaki recorded an increase, as well as the top consumption region of Nagasaki. Funabashi inventories again mysteriously remain largely static. At the bottom end of the table, Kawasaki drops out of the top 7 (decreasing at least 11 tons to come in below new 7th place Hakodate).

That's your update for January 2009 figures


The February 2009 figures are due for release on the 10th of April at 11:00AM

Labels: stockpile figures, whale meat inventory statistics

Over the new year's holiday (unfortunately it takes me until the middle of February to get around to writing about it) I enjoyed a relaxing time down in Shikoku.

Before I even start, I'll mention a complete aside to this - Kochi prefecture which lies on the South-Eastern side of Shikoku facing the Pacific was in the past an area where whaling apparently took off to quite a degree. And the Shikoku airport through which I transited contains souvenirs from the four prefectures of Shikoku island for travellers to conveniently purchase before they depart for wherever they came from or may be going. Getting to the point of this aside, a souvenir shop at the airport there stocks 3 types of whale foodstuff souvenirs from Kochi prefecture. I sampled the jerky offering (pictured to the right) on this occasion. It was not bad, but there is a Shimonoseki produced jerky offering that I prefer to it.

Getting back on track... while down in Shikoku I had a wealth of relaxation time, and with me I took a copy of Toyo Keizai's 2009 preview edition. (Toyo Keizai is a prominent economics magazine here, and when the financial world and subsequently the world economy collapses this stuff becomes especially interesting). Inside the magazine was a special section covering various economic indicators that currency strategists etc. spend their days pouring over for clues about where the economy is headed and where it has been.

Amongst all of these indicators was mention of "inventory ratio indices", and I thought about the application of this to the whale meat inventory statistics that I present each month.

The Nikkei newspaper's website had a useful definition / description of this particular economic indicator here; below is my translation (there are English descriptions elsewhere for sure though):

Inventory ratio index (在庫率指数)
Industrial production inventory volumes divided by shipment volumes.

Inventory is a result of production, and lags behind economic conditions. Further, inventory increases occur not only in the case of "products not selling", but also when "companies increase production". As such, economic conditions can not be judged by [inventory figures] alone. For that reason, inventory ratio indexes were created by combining inventory and shipment data.

During times of economic expansion, as shipments increase more than increases in inventory, the inventory ratio index decreases, and conversely during times of economic contraction it increases.

Often moves in advance of economic conditions.

As for whale, our basic product of interest, at least with respect to the current Japanese market, it is not the case that inventory is a result of "production" per se, as currently the main source of inventory is "by-product" from government sponsored special permit research programmes, in addition to relatively low levels of indirect by-catch and stranding. In all cases, the "production" of whale product is incidental in nature, and thus it does not hold that inventory would increase or decrease in response to economic conditions. Also, strictly speaking, inventories are believed to include volumes of small cetacean products as well as imported products from recently resumed international trade with those nations permitting commercial whaling operations. However dominating the current reality is incidental, non-commercial "production". Recall also that the bulk of the products available hit the official inventory statistics at two times in the year, coinciding with the return of the pelagic research vessels to Japan.

From the other side of the equation, the rational explanation for shipments to increase is due to increased consumption. The bulk of consumption is "commercial" in nature, although again, a fraction of the special permit by-product is set aside for "public purposes".

In this context I calculated basic inventory ratios for the figures available.

As seen in the graph below, the ratio is all over the place, and although one can look at specific months that stand out, overall it seems sensible to average the ratio over a series of months, using a simple moving average. So, also shown in the graph below is a 12-month SMA in green.


As we can see, back prior to mid 2006, there were some "weak" months where the ratio was well over 12. At a glance it appears that these months occur around the time after the JARPA by-product has hit the inventory figures, but before that by-product has gone on sale. That is, the high value of the ratio occurs in part due to the existing in inventory that isn't yet available for sale. One might attempt to try to correct for this, but well, I don't have time :)
In any case it's clear that the ratio by itself is quite spikey.

Averaged over 12 months (using MS Excel's default calculation method) we can see that the ratio has been hovering just above 6 since around July 2007. Given that whale meat "production" tends to occur at two times during the year, a ratio of 6 (plus a bit) seems to indicate good rates of consumption given current levels of supply.

Labels: stockpile figures, whale meat inventory statistics

Lots of other stuff to write about, so here's the update for the December 2008 whale meat inventory statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries (PDF, Excel).

Obviously this wraps up the 2008 year so we can make a few observations versus previous years.

December 2008 outgoing stock: 415 tons

After the relatively large outgoing stock volume in November, December 2008 turned out to be a relative "fizzer", although 415 tons was only down 3% on the same month in December 2007.

December 2008 incoming stock: 229 tons

Also relatively low incoming stock volumes, here down 28% on the same month in the previous year. December is always low though.

December 2008 end-of-month inventories: 3,096 tons

Overall, volumes dropped just under 200 tons, or 6% versus the previous month end, and as of the year end volumes were almost 300 tons less than as of December-end 2007. In fact we have to go back to December 2003 to find a year-end with inventories running lower than this. That year they were significantly lower however, at around 2,150 tons.

December 2008 top inventory regions

The summary of movements in the top stockpile regions:

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	1,451	1,551	-100
Ishinomaki	643	648	-5
Funabashi	320	313	+7
Shimonoseki	125	131	-6
Nagasaki	114	135	-21
Kawasaki	64	74	-10
Kushiro	61	83	-22

Not much happened, with Tokyo the only region showing 3-digit movement in tons.
Funabashi is still mysteriously static.

Graph: Annual volumes

A total of 7.274 tons recorded as leaving storage in 2008, versus incoming volumes of 7,237 tons. The second straight year of outgoing stock shipments outstripping incoming volumes, but with supply (from mainly non-commercial research programmes) on the decrease, the overall volumes were lower than the previous two years.

Graph: Monthly volumes

With inventory at lower levels at the same time in the previous year, the next question is how low stocks will go in early 2009, prior to the next significant incoming stock hitting the statistics around April.

Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)


Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)


Graph: Regional whale meat inventories



The January 2009 figures are scheduled for release on the 10th of March.

Labels: stockpile figures, whale meat inventory statistics

A Happy New Year to you!

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries released statistics on frozen marine product stockpiles for November 2008 last week (PDF, Excel), so without further ado let's look at the figures.

November 2008 outgoing stock: 915 tons

A 34% jump in outgoing stock versus the same month in the previous year.

The last four months have seen quite high outgoing stock levels, after a soft patch in the middle of the year.

November 2008 incoming stock: 293 tons

A 15% decrease versus November 2007, but in real terms, not a great drop.

November 2008 end-of-month stockpile: 3,282 tons

With little in the way of new supply in November, a large drop in stockpile versus the previous month. The total stockpile level had been running at a slightly higher level than in 2007 from July through October, but as of the end of November there was no difference versus the previous year.

November 2008 top stockpile regions

The summary of movements in the top stockpile regions:

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size atprevious month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	1,551	1,869	-318
Ishinomaki	648	909	-261
Funabashi	313	314	-1
Nagasaki	135	129	+6
Shimonoseki	131	143	-12
Kushiro	83	87	-4
Kawasaki	74	87	-13

Note that again Funabashi is left with more than 300 tons of stock - this has been the case since earlier this year, with the figure almost static each month. I had been speculating that this meat was related to the Icelandic and Norwegian whale meat imports, although the volume of 300 tons was not consistent with media reports of a much smaller volume of between 60 and 80 tons of meat.

Still, the fact the Funabashi stockpile is static seems to indicate that there is something special about this stock. One thing is for certain is that it's not going to be there forever.

Otherwise, most of the rest of the stocks are now concentrated in Tokyo and Ishinomaki, and these stocks are going to have to keep the whale eaters here in Japan going through until late spring / early summer 2009.

Graph: Annual volumes

With one month left to go in 2008, it appears that both incoming and outgoing volumes for the year will be slightly lower than in the previous year.

Nonetheless, annual outgoing stock volume appears certain to exceed incoming stock volume again in 2008 - a situation which can only push overall stockpile levels to low levels once again.

Graph: Monthly volumes


Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)

The high levels of outgoing stock over the last several months are evident enough in this graph.
On the left hand side, the slope of the blue 2008 line is clearly sloping upwards at a greater angle than the lines in other years.
On the right hand side, we can see that the outgoing stock volumes in the second half of the year - since the JARPA 2007/2008 by-product auctions started - has remained rather higher on average than in other years, although in previous years there had been larger spikes in certain months of the year.

Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)

In incoming stock volume terms, 2008 is almost identical to 2007, just a touch lower.

Graph: Regional whale meat stockpiles

The overall stockpile movement is now largely determined by movements in Tokyo and Ishinomaki, but also note the flat line representing Funabashi's 300 ton stash of mystery meat.


The December 2008 figures are scheduled for release on the 10th of February

Labels: stockpile figures

Briefly - October stockpile stats (Excel, PDF).
Will look to add some more meat to this later...
UPDATE: 2009/01/21 - had no time at the end of 2008 for that, check the November update instead.

October 2008 outgoing stock: 669 tons


October 2008 incoming stock: 364 tons


October 2008 end-of-month stockpile: 3,904 tons


October 2008 top stockpile regions

The summary of movements in the top stockpile regions:

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	1,869	1,997	-128
Ishinomaki	909	1,079	-170
Funabashi	314	315	-1
Shimonoseki	143	154	-9
Nagasaki	129	141	-12
Kushiro	87	104	-17
Kawasaki	87	85	+2

Graph: Annual volumes

Graph: Monthly volumes


Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)


Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)


Graph: Regional whale meat stockpiles



The November 2008 figures are scheduled for release on the 13th of January.

Labels: stockpile figures

UPDATED 11/16: Graphs added

The September update of the MAFF official whale meat stockpile statistics, extracted from their monthly release.

Some days back the ICR put out their regular announcement about meat volumes from the JARPN programme conducted in the western North-Pacific during the Northern summer. The total volume was 1,888.4 tons. 59 Minkes, 50 Bryde's and 100 Sei whales, and 2 Sperm whales were taken this year, and a translation of the table shown in the Japanese release is below (units in tons):

	Minke	Bryde's	Sei	Sperm	Total
(1) Public use	29.6	67.5	215.1	-	312.2
(2) Market use	143.5	344.0	1,079.6	9.1	1,576.2
Total	173.1	411.5	1,294.7	9.1	1,888.4

This year the auction period runs from November 1 through until the end of January. 20 tons of frozen meat from the coastal component of the JARPN programme will also be sold in the market. 50 tons of fresh product (which wouldn't show up in these stockpile statistics) was also apparently been sold off in traditional whaling towns around Japan.

On the 31st the Nikkei business newspaper reported in their products section that prices for meat would rise on average 6%. Reasons given for this were the obstruction from "nature protection groups" and high fuel costs, and a much lower level of supply.
As for the JARPN by-product itself, the volume was basically the same as last year, but Sei whale red meat prices were raised to 1980 yen per kilo (up 3.1%). Unesu meat, used for bacon, is apparently in strong demand and the top grade product is priced at 3,600 yen this year, a 13% increase. On the other hand, stocks of red meat cuts and chest meat are higher in supply, and prices for these items were adjusted downwards.

If you recall in the previous update, the incoming stock volume was just under 1,600 tons, so there was 300 tons of JARPN product that didn't show up in the stockpile figures in August. We see below that it seems to have appeared in the September figures.

September 2008 outgoing stock: 695 tons

A 51% increase in outgoing stock versus the same month in 2007.

September 2008 incoming stock: 846 tons

Just a 1% increase in incoming stock versus the same month in 2007.

September 2008 end-of-month stockpile: 4,209 tons

A 4% increase on the stockpile size of August, and also a 4% increase on the stockpile size at the same point in time last year.

September 2008 top stockpile regions

The summary of movements in the top stockpile regions:

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	1,997	2,168	-171
Ishinomaki	1,079	746	+333
Funabashi	315	317	-2
Shimonoseki	154	155	-1
Nagasaki	141	130	+11
Kushiro	104	117	-13
Kawasaki	85	86	-1

Obvious enough where the extra JARPN meat went. Funabashi's stockpile had still gone nowhere, but a rumour I heard has it that this meat will finally complete the import procedures within the next month or so - so if the rumour is true then this stock should start moving by the time we see the December figures.

Graph: Annual volumes

As of September, with three months in the year to go, the Incoming stock figure is still 1,000 ahead of the Outgoing figure, but generally Incoming stock levels over the last few months of the year only total around 1,000 tons, where as the Outgoing figures tend to be greater over the last 3 months, maybe looking for a total of 2,000.

This year might also see a little extra supply available however, depending on exactly when the Norwegian and Icelandic import meat starts moving.

Graph: Monthly volumes

Expect the yellow Stockpile line to head sharply southwards in the next several updates, particularly from November when the JARPN II by-product whale meat will go on sale.

As an aside, recent Greenpeace propaganda cites the stockpile volume increase from less than 2,800 tons earlier in 2008 to 4,200 tonnes at the end of September as being indicative of a lack of demand for whale meat. Greenpeace's shame knows no bounds. These are the same types of people who would commit trespass and theft in pursuit of establishing a silly conspiracy theory for their propaganda purposes. Alas, this is the manner in which some people would make a living - they will bear the consequences of this whether they like it or not.

Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)

As we approach the end of the year, the blue Outgoing stock line for 2008 appears to now be trending slightly higher than was the case in the latter part of 2007.

The high level of consumption in 2007 was in spite of lower stock in 2007 than 2006 due to the fire accident on board the Nisshin Maru that year, but there was subsequently a low level of stocks left earlier in 2008, as seen above in the Monthly volumes graph.

Outgoing stock was thus confined to a lower level in the early part of the year, but from around the time of the JARPA by-product auction, outgoing stock has geared up to a higher average level.

The previous two years have seen relatively high levels of Outgoing stock over the final months of the year, and I would predict that figures released for the final months of 2008 will also paint a similar story.

Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)

Incoming stock is interesting in that although JARPN II by-product volumes have been roughly the same for 2007 and 2008, there has been an increase in the incoming stock figure in 2008 for the relevant months.

Graph: Regional whale meat stockpiles



The October figures will be released on December 12.

Labels: stockpile figures

Last month I kicked off the June 2008 whale meat stockpile update with a snapshot of a mini-stockpile of whale meat - that found in the canned food section of my local supermarket. Don't be fooled, it's not like you can find whale in the canned food section of every Tokyo supermarket, but at least it is available at mine (along with whale bacon).


The image on the left was the "stockpile" as of August 22, and then to the right of that is the situation a couple of days later on the 24th. Not pictured above, but again one day in early September I stopped by and just 4 cans were on display, but around the 10th of September the whale can shelf space was completely full. So this product seems to turn over quite well at my supermarket. The product itself is well labeled - it's crystal clear about the species that is included in the can, and where the contents were caught, and a special mobile phone readable bar code provides the URL of the company (Hokkaido based) that produces it where consumers can read more information. Recent JAS (Japan Agricultural Standard) guidelines urge whale products be labeled according both to species and region where the whale was caught, so this particular product complies well.

But on with this month's update. Here's the July stockpile release from the Ministry in Excel and PDF formats.

The big event for this month was the start of the JARPA by-product auction in markets around the country. The last week of the auction was in the first week of August, but most of the auction took place in July.

July 2008 outgoing stock: 898 tons

898 tons gone, and 683 tons of that supposedly left "consumption areas". We see below that most of the stock was probably leaving Tokyo storage facilities.

The 898 ton figure is 75% of the figure for the same month last year. Less stock in supply in 2008 seems to be a factor in the lower volume of outgoing stock.

July 2008 incoming stock: 522 tons

359 tons of the 522 "incoming" tons of stock apparently came into so-called "production" areas, and 163 into "consumption" areas. The total monthly figure was 82% of the figure for July 2007.

July 2008 end-of-month stockpile: 3,254 tons

Overall, down 10% on the end-of-month stockpile figure for June, but 5% higher than at the same point in time last year. A factor in this is the timing of the JARPA auction. In 2007 it started in late June and ended in late July. This year it started in early July, and ended in early August. As such a bit of a lag seems to be coming about. As is evident from the graphs below, there is less stock available this year than last.

July 2008 top stockpile regions

The official stats note the top 7 stockpile regions for each month, along with the info from June's release here's a summary of the movements:

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	1,427	2,028	-601
Ishinomaki	624	529	+95
Funabashi	325	310	+15
Shimonoseki	159	122	-37
Kushiro	137	143	+6
Nagasaki	115	88	-27
Kawasaki	95	?	n/a
Hakodate	?	71	n/a

The big decrease in Tokyo is due to the JARPA by-product auction. Note that Funabashi, which I have been speculating as the location for imported whale meat from the North Atlantic, remains in 3rd place overall, again with more than 300 tons. This has been the case for 3 months running now - and despite the JARPA by-product auction this stock hasn't gone anywhere. So it definitely seems to be tied up, and most likely because it's undergoing the first run of whale meat import procedures since the early 1990's.

Graph: Annual volumes

Seven months gone now in 2008, and incoming and outgoing stock volumes are now running just about equal. Over the summer months there will be more increases in incoming stock (due to ongoing research whaling programmes supplying by-product whale meat), but towards the end of the year it'll be consumption, suggested through outgoing stock figures that takes charge.

Graph: Monthly volumes

A downturn for overall stock volume in July, but expect to see another mini spike coming up, as with summer months in recent years.

Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)


Outgoing stock in 2008 is clearly running below levels seen in 2006 and 2007 when more supply was available, but still running above 2005 which was similar to 2008 in terms of incoming stock.

Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)


The difference between 2008 and 2005 is basically the meat which turned up in Funabashi.

Graph: Regional whale meat stockpiles

A bit hard to see, but the tiny brown line that appeared in the bottom right of this graph is the whale meat stored in Funabashi.


August figures are scheduled for release on October the 10th.

Some recent information reported at Tohoku Broadcasting suggests that one of the JARPN whaling vessels (the 2nd Kyoshin Maru) docked in Ishinomaki on the 29th of August, and some Bryde's whale and Sei whale "by-product" meat was unloaded there. Apparently around 270 tons of red meat were brought ashore there and then transported to a Ishinomaki city ultra-low temperature storage facility, where it's stored at -50 degree Celsius temperature. The report suggests that the whale meat is set to be shipped to nationwide markets sometime after October, and Ishinomaki stands to gain economic benefits from the usage of the storage facility and the shipping fees.

The rest of the meat presumably went elsewhere, most likely to a port in Hokkaido, I guess. We'll see next month.

Labels: stockpile figures

I'm kicking off this post with a visual of a whale meat stockpile. The picture to the right of text shows the stock level of a canned whale meat product, "Yamatoni", at my local supermarket.

I was surprised to find this in the canned seafood section a month or so ago. Ever since I've been frequenting it they have been stocking whale meat bacon (similar to this product, but in a smaller size quantity), and last year they had red whale meat sashimi on sale for a time as well. Recently another whale bacon product also appeared as a seemingly seasonal offering, but the canned Yamatoni product pictured also appears to be a regular that I simply had never noticed.

I was also surprised to see an instant meal type Whale Curry (Japanese style) at a nearby 7-11 convenience store. That was also seemingly a temporary summer offering, although I've not been back since to be able to confirm that. My surprise was because I seemed to recall some western anti-whaling group saying they had intimidated Ito-yokado (owner of the 7-11 chain) into no longer stocking whale products in their stores. Maybe I got the wrong end of the stick, but anyway.

Enough digression - MAFF's "Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products", including whale meat stockpile information for June was released some days back (PDF, Excel).

Not much happened on the stockpile front in June. The obvious major event for the month was IWC 60 in Chile, but coverage in Japan was quite limited with not much headline news coming out of it. Other events included:

• Kyodo Senpaku fleet departure for this year's JARPN II research in the Western-North Pacific
• The Tokyo Prosecutors Office determined to not prosecute 12 whaling vessel crew members who Greenpeace Japan had alleged had stolen whale meat from their employers, Kyodo Senpaku
• The Tokyo Prosecutors Office determined to further investigate alleged trespass and theft by Greenpeace Japan activists of a box of whale meat in mid April, a box of meat which Greenpeace a month later put on display to media when making their (ultimately false) allegations against whaling vessel crew members.
  

The Greenpeace theft news was covered a lot in the news, but not much happened that would bring about significant changes in the stockpile situation. Indeed, as much as 2,000 tons of the stockpile was also still unavailable for sales at the time, and additionally, whale meat dealers were waiting for the commencement of the JARPA II by-product auction in early July to get the newest product into stock from the wholesale markets.

As for last month's mysterious 318 ton stockpile in Funabashi that appeared, it's hard to be certain of the source as the JARPA II meat appeared to be accounted for in the jump in Tokyo stockpile figures for April. Anti-whaling group WDCS recently wrote a little of their own speculation about the activities of Norwegian whaling vessels in relation to matters surrounding whale meat trade.

June 2008 outgoing stock: 314 tons

Not much this month, but next month will be a bumper for sure.

June 2008 incoming stock: 254 tons

No unusual leaps in stock this month.

June 2008 end-of-month stockpile: 3,630 tons
Just a slight dip this month. As noted above, a large chunk of this is confirmed as not being for sale as of June. The JARPA II by-product sale runs from early July through early August, so expect a significant drop in the figure in the next update for July.

June 2008 top stockpile regions

The top stockpile regions, their stockpile levels and movement since the previous month are shown in the table below:

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	2,028	2,074	-46
Ishinomaki	529	512	+17
Funabashi	310	318	-8
Kushiro	143	133	+10
Shimonoseki	122	130	-8
Nagasaki	88	88	0
Hakodate	71	?	n/a
Kawasaki	?	84	n/a

Well, that Funabashi stockpile looks to be static to me. It will be interesting to see how much of it was still there at the end of the July month, after the JARPA by-product auction has largely completed.

Graph: Annual volumes
Half the year gone, and obviously things are looking more subdued than in the recent couple of years, with lower levels of stock at present. The stockpile tends to be more active in the second half of the year as is evident in the cumulative graphs below.

Graph: Monthly volumes

Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)
The 2008 worm is down a bit, but the trend in most years seems to be a slightly higher average outgoing volume of stock over the last 6 months of the year as compared with the first 6 months.

Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)
Evidently, less stock around this year compared with 2006 and 2007. If it weren't for that Funabashi meat, 2008 would be looking much like 2005.

Graph: Regional whale meat stockpiles


July 2008 figures will be out on September the 10th.

Labels: stockpile figures

Another month has gone by, and we have another release of MAFF's "Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products" to devour for whale meat stockpile information (PDF, Excel).

Since April there was an announcement about the by-product from the JARPA II cruise, which I introduced here.

Figures this time are for May.

When looking at these figures we often see they are reconcilable with events happening throughout the year in relation to the activities of the government's research whaling activities. In May one such event was the conclusion of the coastal component of the JARPN II programme conducted in the Sanriku area (Pacific coast off north eastern Japan) on May 18 (MAFF, ICR announcements in Japanese). 60 minke whales were caught in this programme this year, during April and May, so in terms of the May stockpile figures there would only be a limited impact expected in any case, but additionally the by-product whale meat resulting from the coastal components of the JARPN II programme is (at least mainly) sold fresh, rather than put into cold storage. Hence, no very notable amount of incoming stock is expected due to that activity.

On the other hand, a new dimension to the supply side of the whale meat market has now eventuated, namely the export/import of whale meat products from Iceland and Norway to Japan. News of this movement broke at the start of June, although reports indicated that the whale meat in question had already arrived in Japan, so it was likely here in late May. However, while noting that there was no legal issue with the trade, government officials stated that they had not yet received notice of the trade. As noted by the Suisan Keizai newspaper, the paperwork required to complete the trade is not trivial and so some (unknown) amount of time will seemingly be required to complete it. Recent statements made suggest that this was still the case as of the beginning of July. The whale meat, in the meantime, is said to be held in a customs storage facility.

So, with that in mind let's see what the figures show for the month to the end of May.

May 2008 outgoing stock: 464 tons

Just a typical May on the outgoing stock front. This figure of 464 tons is a tad up on the figure for May 2007.

May 2008 incoming stock: 514 tons

This figure is a very big one for a May. It is by far the largest incoming stock volume for a May since at least 2001 (as far back as the figures I have go), and represents a 237% increase on the incoming volume for the same month last year.

337 tons of this figure came into what MAFF classifies as "consumption areas", and the remaining 177 tons were recorded as moving into the other "production areas". We'll see some specifics about this below in the regional stockpile figure information.

May 2008 end-of-month stockpile: 3,690 tons

The stockpile is down to 92% of the volume it was at the same time last year, although it moved up 50 tons on April.

Keep in mind that a large chunk of this is confirmed as not being for sale as of May.

May 2008 top stockpile regions

The top stockpile regions, their stockpile levels and movement since the previous month are shown in the table below:

Region	Stockpile size at month end	Stockpile size at previous month end	Movement
Tokyo city wards	2,074	2,115	-41
Ishinomaki	512	503	+9
Funabashi	318	?	n/a
Kushiro	133	139	-6
Shimonoseki	130	139	-9
Nagasaki	88	107	-19
Kawasaki	84	102	-18
Yokohama	?	152	n/a

The biggest mover this month was a complete newcomer - Funabashi.

Funabashi is a designated "consumption area", situated in Chiba prefecture just to the east of Tokyo. Funabashi wasn't noted in the top 7 regions in April figures, and as the 7th placed region at the end of April held 102 tons, we can deduce that at least 216 tons of the 318 recorded as being situated in Funabashi storage facilities at the end of May was not present in there as of the end of April.

This sudden leap in stock stored in Funabashi doesn't appear to be an artifact of MAFF's survey method (at least, the April survey end-of-month stockpile volume of 3,640 tons matches the May survey end-of-previous-month stockpile volume exactly).

As far as figures for Funabashi go, this is the first time any significant level of volume has been recorded there, although I only have detailed figures for between 2001 and 2005. During that time period, stocks were recorded as fluctuating between 10 and 20 tons in any given month.

As such, the 318 tons held in Funabashi at the end of May represents quite an unusual event.

So where has the whale meat come from? My speculation for this month is that at least some of this meat is related to the Iceland / Norway trade matter. Funabashi city is located in the same prefecture as Narita airport, which is the likely port of entry for the wares from the North Atlantic, and thus possibly the location where the product is being stored while the import procedures are in progress.

However, the volume of meat recorded in Funabashi is 318 tons, of which at least 200 tons (maybe much more) can't be accounted for. The recent trade from Iceland and Norway to Japan was reported to have only involved between 60 and 80 tons of product.

Next month's movements may give some more hints as to the nature of the meat stored in Funabashi.

Graph: Annual volumes


Graph: Monthly volumes


Graph: Outgoing stock (cumulative)


Graph: Incoming stock (cumulative)


Graph: Regional whale meat stockpiles



June 2008 figures will be out on August the 8th.

Labels: stockpile figures, whale meat trade