David @ Tokyo

Israel has finally completed the process and is now a recognised IWC member.

That's one more vote for the anti-whaling camp. Updating my IWC nations list...

In the pro-sustainable use corner:
From Central America (10)
Belize, Guatemala, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica , Grenada, St Kitts & Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent & Grenadines, Nicaragua, Surinam
From Europe (4)
Iceland, Norway, Russia, Denmark
From Oceania (6)
Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Nauru, Palau, Kiribati, Solomon Islands
From Asia (5)
Mongolia, China, South Korea, Japan, Cambodia
From the Middle East (1)
Oman
From Africa (11)
The Gambia, Benin, Cameroon, Cote d'lvoire, Gabon, Guinea, Senegal, Mauritania, Morocco, Togo, Mali

No-shows:
Costa Rico, Peru, Kenya (These 3 nations never turn up to vote)

In the anti-whaling corner:
From Asia (1):
India
From Europe (19):
Finland, Ireland, Italy, Holland, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, Monaco, Portugal, San Marino, Slovakia, Spain, UK
From Central America (2):
Mexico, Panama
From South America (3)
Chile, Argentina, Brazil
From Oceania (2)
Australia, New Zealand
From North America (1)
USA
From the Middle East (1)
Israel
From Africa (1)
South Africa

In summary, by my analysis we are currently looking at:
37 members who are likely to vote in accordance with the principle of sustainable use;
3 nations who will simply fail to turn up to vote;
30 members likely to vote against all forms of whaling.

There has been some speculation over how the Solomon Islands will vote (if indeed they turn up), but for now I've got them in the pro-sustainable use camp, in that 37 figure.

The pro-conservation & sustainable use bloc still has a healthy lead on paper over the anti-whalers. Still, if a large number of the developing nations that would normally support whaling fail to show, the anti-whaling bloc may still have an actual voting majority during the plenary meeting. It works both ways however - India, who I have as an anti-whaling nation, fail to turn up sometimes for example.

Another interesting one to watch will be South Africa. Since their representative quit and joined Sea Shepherd, one wonders whether he was unhappy with instructions from his ministry...

* I fixed a mistake I made in classifying Belize as an African nation. Of course, Belize is in Central America. Apologies to Belize.